What you'll find: what I think is actually going on in power, business and the economy — published in the state it's really in. Every argument carries a label, so you know how much weight to give it. Leading with words means being willing to be wrong in public.
A decade of capex went into generation while interconnection queues quietly became the binding constraint. The re-rating isn't in solar — it's in cable, switchgear, and anyone who can pour concrete near a substation.
Firms reporting "AI gains" are mostly reporting headcount they quietly didn't rehire. Worth separating before we call it a supply-side miracle.
There is money. What's missing is somewhere to sell a company that isn't a US strategic buyer at a 40% discount to Nasdaq comps.
From my thesis, revisited three years on. The monetary-policy case was always thin; the tax-enforcement case is the one nobody says out loud.
Half-formed. I can't yet separate resilience from rent-seeking in the numbers, and I'd rather not pretend otherwise.
Long duration, real assets, genuinely patient. They're doing what sovereign wealth funds only claim to do.
Testing whether permitting speed predicts industrial investment better than the cost of capital does. Early signs say yes, uncomfortably.
An instinct I can't yet defend with numbers. Published so I can be argued out of it early.
A real hypothesis with a way to be wrong. I'm actively looking for the disconfirming case.
I've done the work and I'm willing to be judged on it. Where it touches money, it shows up in section 02.
Most forecasts describe what actors want. The useful question is what they physically cannot do — permits, ports, fabs, transformers.
A threat you carry out is a threat you no longer have. Energy cut-offs and export controls are wasting assets, and states price them accordingly.
Insurance and shipping rates price geopolitical risk earlier and more honestly than equity markets do. They're the tell.
Strategy documents are cheap. The line item that survives a spending review is the one the state actually believes in.